City Air Quality Forecasting and Impact Factors Analysis Based on Grey Model

As an important environmental problem, air quality influences urban population’s health and economic development. To investigate air quality changing trend and main factors affecting the quality of Tianjin in China, we employed grey dynamic model group and grey relational analysis. For forecasting, we first use model group to fit the annual average air pollution concentration of Tianjin from 2001-2009, the fitting results shows that model group has high accuracy, so then we use it to forecast the air quality until 2015. In the future, the air quality in Tianjin will continuously improve, the concentration of PM10, SO2, and NO2 will decrease obviously. From the grey relational analysis to social economics factors, result shows that industrial pollution and energy consumption have great influence to pollutions’ concentration, and urban green project can improve the integrate city air quality in a large level, also, some other factors such as automobile exhaust and central heating have some influences on the air quality. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Society for Resources, Environment and Engineering